Every finished match is graded against the prediction made for it, prop by prop. “Hit” means the model’s most-likely call was correct — not that it was confident.
Hourly ledgerUpdated after ingestion
Model overview
All completed predictions
Graded predictions
6608
full ledger
Result hit rate
49%
Both teams to score
90%
Total goals O/U
72%
Half-time O/U
64%
6608 graded
Brier score / result
0.611
baseline 0.636
Brier gain
+0.025
model edge vs baseline
Forecast snapshots
9091
6608 eligible matches
Excluded after kick-off
80
134 late snapshots retained for audit
Performance by format
Same model / different match clocks
Prediction performance grouped by FIFA match format
Format
Graded
Result
BTTS
Total O/U
HT O/U
Brier
Baseline
Gain
FIFA12
698
52%
96%
78% @6.5
69% @3.5 (698)
0.593
0.628
+0.035
FIFA6
1557
53%
86%
73% @3.5
75% @1.5 (1557)
0.583
0.629
+0.046
FIFA8
4353
46%
91%
71% @4.5
60% @2.5 (4353)
0.624
0.639
+0.015
FIFA12
698 graded
Result
52%
BTTS
96%
Total O/U @6.5
78%
HT O/U @3.5
69%
Brier
0.593
Baseline
0.628
Gain vs baseline
+0.035
FIFA6
1557 graded
Result
53%
BTTS
86%
Total O/U @3.5
73%
HT O/U @1.5
75%
Brier
0.583
Baseline
0.629
Gain vs baseline
+0.046
FIFA8
4353 graded
Result
46%
BTTS
91%
Total O/U @4.5
71%
HT O/U @2.5
60%
Brier
0.624
Baseline
0.639
Gain vs baseline
+0.015
Signal by conviction
Four equal-volume bands / low to high
Conviction is useful only if stronger bands produce a larger positive Brier gain. These quartiles are descriptive, not a promise about the next match.
Result performance grouped into four conviction quartiles
Band
Conviction
Graded
Result hit
Brier
Baseline
Gain
Q1 Band 1
0.00–0.20
1652
42%
0.643
0.643
+0.001
Q2 Band 2
0.20–0.27
1652
43%
0.632
0.637
+0.005
Q3 Band 3
0.27–0.38
1652
48%
0.626
0.633
+0.007
Q4 Highest
0.38–1.00
1652
61%
0.543
0.627
+0.085
Quartile 1
Signal band 1
1652 graded
Range
0.00–0.20
Result hit
42%
Brier
0.643
Baseline
0.643
Gain
+0.001
Quartile 2
Signal band 2
1652 graded
Range
Recent decisions
Last 25 graded matches
Most recently graded predictions and their outcomes